compoundcoast
Withdraw · sequence risk

How long will my money last?

Bank calculators quote one number from a smoothed average return taxed at nothing. This page replays your drawdown across every historical start year since 1928 — in the actual order returns arrived, so an early crash counts differently than a late one — grosses taxes up out of every withdrawal, drags explicit fees, and reports the age your money runs out as a p10 / median / p90 range.

S&P 500 total return · asOf 2026-01 CPI-U · asOf 2026-01 IRS 2026 brackets · asOf 2025-10 SSA life table · 2023 Updated 2026-07-06

Assumptions

live · every start year since 1928
Sets the drawdown horizon (to the life table's edge at 119) and the longevity references.
Life-table reference
Only used to pick the SSA 2023 life-table column for the success-rate references.
Investable balance the withdrawals draw from.
What you actually spend. The engine withdraws MORE than this to cover the tax — that is the point.
Stock sleeve earns S&P 500 total return; the rest earns the 3-month T-bill (cash). A bond series is a planned refinement.
Account type
Traditional: withdrawals taxed as ordinary income. Roth: untaxed. Taxable: gain share taxed at LTCG rates.
Filing status
Picks the 2026 bracket set and standard deduction.
100 bps = 1.00%/yr, dragged off the portfolio return every year.
Inflation-adjust spending
On scales spending by each sequence's real CPI-U path — 1970s starts get 1970s inflation.
Set your inputs to replay the drawdown across every historical start year.
—
p10 / p90 age — Lasts to life expectancy — Year-1 gross withdrawal —
Median balance path Range across start years (p10–p90)
Set your inputs — this replays the drawdown across every historical start year, not one smoothed average. Because the order returns arrive changes the outcome, the honest answer is a depletion-age range, not a single number.

Depletion age range

p10 · median · p90 across start years

Coral = 10th-percentile (unlucky sequences run out this early), aqua = median, mint = 90th-percentile. "119+" means the money outlasts the life table's edge.

Year-1 withdrawal waterfall

gross → tax → fee → spendable
— Gross withdrawal
— Federal tax
— Fee drag (yr 1, est.)
— Spendable

The gap most calculators skip: a "4% withdrawal" is not 4% of spending — tax comes out of the withdrawal, and fees come out of the portfolio on top.

Methodology & sources
Show the math ›
Run the replay to see the worked numbers — including the down-first vs up-first sequence example on your own inputs.
Assumptions & sources ›
AssumptionValueSource · asOf
Equity return S&P 500 total return, 1928–2025 Damodaran (NYU Stern), annual · asOf 2026-01 · dividends reinvested
Non-stock sleeve 3-month T-bill (cash) Damodaran (NYU Stern) · asOf 2026-01 · a bond series is a planned refinement
Inflation CPI-U, Dec/Dec, actual path per sequence BLS · asOf 2026-01
Sequences 98 start years, wrap-around every start year 1928–2025; sequences longer than the data wrap to 1928 (disclosed approximation)
Federal tax 2026 brackets, grossed up per withdrawal IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 · asOf 2025-10 · standard deduction; brackets held constant (no future indexation)
Fees explicit bps drag, every year user input; applied to the portfolio return after each withdrawal
Longevity SSA period life table 2023 SSA table 4.C6 · asOf 2023 · death-age percentiles derived at ages 45/55/65, interpolated between (and clamped outside) those anchors
Not modeled (v1) Social Security & its provisional-income tax, RMDs, state tax, IRMAA/ACA, spending flexibility documented limitations — the withdrawal is assumed to be the household's only income; results skew conservative for households with SS income

The life table is a period table (2023 mortality held fixed): it understates longevity for younger cohorts, which makes the success-rate references easier to hit than a cohort projection would be. All outputs are illustrative estimates across historical sequences — the future is not obligated to repeat any of them.

Written by Author to be finalized before launch · Updated 2026-07-06

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